722
FXUS61 KILN 270508
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
108 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) HOT AND HUMID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHOWERS, AND A SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, HAVE MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED
ALONG THE NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LLJ IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO STAY FOCUSED THERE THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND WARM RAIN
PROCESSES SUPPORT HIGH RAIN RATES AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND 8-10AM THIS MORNING WHEN THE NOSE OF THE
LLJ PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE ON THE LOWER
SIDE, BUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PWATS
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FORM TODAY COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ON MONDAY, AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND LASTS AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK
ACCORDING THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF STATES CONTINUOUSLY BRINGS IN
WARM, MOIST AIR TO THE REGION. FORECAST HIGHS BY MID WEEK ARE LIKELY
TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. LOWS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF OVERNIGHT.
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE LIKELY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE HEAT
INDEX PEAKING BETWEEN 100 AND 105 EACH AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR ANY
RELIEF IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THE REST OF
TONIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BEING IN SOUTHERN OHIO. IFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER 0600Z WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACCOMPANY THE LOWERED CEILINGS.
IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE REGARDING CEILINGS. SOME
GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE SCATTERING TREND TOWARD VFR EARLY OVERNIGHT
BEFORE LOWERING CEILINGS LATER.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK... MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ063-070>073-077>082-
088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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