214
FXUS61 KILN 271002
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
602 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) HOT AND HUMID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHOWERS, AND A SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, HAVE MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED
ALONG THE NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LLJ IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO STAY FOCUSED THERE THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND WARM RAIN
PROCESSES SUPPORT HIGH RAIN RATES AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND 8-10AM THIS MORNING WHEN THE NOSE OF THE
LLJ PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE ON THE LOWER
SIDE, BUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PWATS
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FORM TODAY COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ON MONDAY, AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND LASTS AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK
ACCORDING THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF STATES CONTINUOUSLY BRINGS IN
WARM, MOIST AIR TO THE REGION. FORECAST HIGHS BY MID WEEK ARE LIKELY
TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. LOWS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF OVERNIGHT.
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE LIKELY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE HEAT
INDEX PEAKING BETWEEN 100 AND 105 EACH AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR ANY
RELIEF IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS LOW.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CINCINNATI SITES THIS MORNING
WHILE LIGHT DRIZZLE AND MIST IS BEING OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK... MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ063-070>073-077>082-
088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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