147
FXUS61 KILN 271913
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
313 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO TONIGHT.
2) HOT AND HUMID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MCV MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARDS ACROSS
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, SLOWLY WEAKENING AS
DIURNAL COOLING GRADUALLY OCCURS. THERE IS AN AXIS OF DCAPE AROUND
800 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THIS BAND. SO, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANY STORMS, BUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM IS VERY LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM VERY EFFICIENT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. IT
SEEMS LIKE THIS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP FLOODING
POTENTIAL ISOLATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
BROAD, ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE, PEAKING OVER 2 SIGMA,
WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THEN SOME, MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED, IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID AS A
RESULT. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND WEST OF I-75 ON
MONDAY. WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY EXCEED THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST LIKELY THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE MAY START TO GET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY THEN.
PROBABILITY OF MEETING OR EXCEEDING THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 105 PEAKS ON THURSDAY AROUND 35 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER. OVER TIME, THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE SOME ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO HAVE NO
EFFECT ON THE MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX FOR ANY PARTICULAR DAY. THE RIDGE
WILL GET SUPPRESSED SUBSTANTIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NOT QUITE SO
HOT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO START WILL LIFT INTO A VFR DECK BY
00Z IF NOT EARLIER. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING, MAINLY FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN. PROB30
COVERS THE TIME WINDOW WHEN THE CHANCE IS THE HIGHEST, BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING OCCURRING BEFORE THEN. IFR CEILINGS WILL
REDEVELOP, GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AFTER 14Z.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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