975
FXUS61 KILN 280617
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
217 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING,
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG.
2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS INTERACTING WITH A VERY SATURATED AIR
MASS, WHERE PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.8". COMBINED WITH THE WEAK FLOW, THIS
IS RESULTING SLOW MOVING, REGENERATING SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OH. WHILE FLOODING WILL STILL BE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE, ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES GIVEN THE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN THESE SLOW MOVING CELLS. THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS, KEEPING ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS PRIMARILY AROUND CENTRAL OH BEFORE THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE.
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND WILL PERSIST INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE THICK LAYER OF CLOUDS, CONDITIONS AREN'T
EXACTLY FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP, BUT TRAPPED SHALLOW
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS NEAR ONE MILE IN
SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND OHGO CAMERAS TO DETERMINE
IF ANY PRODUCT IS NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN AN AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST REGION THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN AN IMPACTFUL HEAT WAVE. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD BE OBSERVED AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WITH THE
LATEST NBM DATA PROVIDING HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR
A LARGE PORTION OF OUR CWA. IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO MEET OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL
PROVIDE NO RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HEAT WAVE, HEAT HEADLINE PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOON.
WILL CONTINUE TO NOTE THAT AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON A SIGNAL OF THE H5 RIDGE DAMPENING,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WOULD ALTER HIGH TEMP FORECASTS AND PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT, BUT WILL INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS, REDUCED VSBYS AND LOWER CIGS.
RADAR HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS THAT ARE LINGERING
IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OHIO. HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF
SHRA TO A FEW OF THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
KCMH/KLCK HAVING THE BEST COVERAGE IN RAIN BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.
REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL TANK TO IFR LATER THIS
MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIFR AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON
SUNDAY, BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR
NEAR 18Z.
VSBY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO BR AND SHRA. VSBYS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR, BUT A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE DAWN, PARTICULARLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS AGAIN.
VSBYS MAY REMAIN MVFR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK GIVEN THE THICK
LAYER OF CLOUDS KEEPING THE SURFACE MOISTURE TRAPPED.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK
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