156
FXUS61 KILN 281824
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
224 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THIS IS LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS STARTS TOMORROW, EXCEPT FOR THE
SCIOTO VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHERE IT STARTS TUESDAY. THE
ADVISORY MAY WELL HAVE TO GO INTO FRIDAY OR EVEN SATURDAY, BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE AS THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED A BIT
SOUTH BY THEN WHICH INTRODUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMETHING BEYOND
ISOLATED CONVECTION. HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES WHERE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
FORECAST HOT WEATHER GET INTERRUPTED BY AN MCS THAT DOES NOT GET
DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE UNTIL LATE IN THE GAME. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TO EXCEED THE HEAT INDEX THRESHOLD OF
105 THAT WOULD NECESSITATE A WARNING AT SOME POINT DURING THIS HEAT
WAVE. THE PROBLEM IS THAT SMALL ERRORS IN FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT CAN TRANSLATE INTO LARGER ERRORS IN THE HEAT INDEX
FORECAST. SO HAVE TAKEN A MORE CAUTIOUS APPROACH BY GOING WITH AN
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE IN HEAT
INDICES EXCEEDING THAT THRESHOLD, BEYOND ISOLATED LOCATIONS,
INCREASES THEN THE ADVISORY CAN BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO START WILL LIFT TO VFR EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME PLACES SCATTERING. SPOTTY SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
OHIO COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT KCMH/KLCK BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER AFTER 00Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT FOG TO START TO DEVELOP. A
DECK OF CLOUDS WITH VFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION AFTER 06Z. THIS SHOULD STOP FURTHER DROPS IN VISIBILITY. BUT
CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO KCMH/KLCK, SO IFR VISIBILITIES
ARE FORECAST THERE. VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER 12Z WITH A
SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK AS WELL AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT, EVENTUALLY COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>081.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ045-046-
054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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