649
FXUS61 KILN 291045
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.
2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
3) SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE DURING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OUR CWA, COMBINED WITH SATURATED LOW
LEVELS AND CALM WINDS HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING.
SOME OF THE FOG HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE, PARTICULARLY IN NORTH-
CENTRAL KY AND PORTIONS OF THE SCIOTO VALLEY. OHGO CAMERAS SHOWED
ENOUGH FOG IMPACTS TO ROADWAYS TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
NO MODIFICATIONS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS THE FORECAST GENERALLY
REMAINS ON TRACK.
NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY WITH INCREASED H5 HEIGHTS.
WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO REMAINING IN THE 70S, HEAT INDICIES WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE MIDDLE 90S TO LOWER 100S. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OH DOWN
THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL KY LIKELY HAVE HEAT INDICIES REMAIN IN THE 90S.
THUS, HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME OF THESE COUNTIES OUT OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY.
BY TUESDAY, THE H5 RIDGE BROADENS AND BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS
THE MIDWEST REGION. CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
BEING REACHED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH IS WHY THE HEADLINE IS
BEING HELD ACTIVE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL
UPGRADE TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR ANY OF THESE DAYS DEPENDING ON
HOW MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS. IT DOES STILL APPEAR THAT THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK WHEN THE RIDGE IS STRONGEST. BEYOND
THURSDAY, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP A HEAT HEADLINE IN
EFFECT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS, ALONG WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NOW SHOWING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BY
FRIDAY, THE MEAN AXIS OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE
H5 RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO DAMPEN A BIT. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING BECOMES
ENHANCED, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST REGION. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL GIVEN
THE HOT/HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE, PROMOTING MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WHILE THIS POTENTIAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD INCREASE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, IT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME
HEAT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR NEAR BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS THE FOG BURNS OFF. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS AT KLUK.
CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, BUT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF PASSING
CLOUDS AT VARIOUS LEVELS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT OUT OF THE SSW TODAY, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>081.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ073-074-
079>082-088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ045-046-
054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ097>100.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK
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