535
FXUS61 KILN 292336
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
736 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
2) SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE DURING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
CENTER OF EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THE FORECAST. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE. THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE ISOLATED SPOTS
THAT EXCEED 105, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT DEVIATING FROM THE
PROLONGED HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT AS NEWER DATA COMES IN, AN UPGRADE TO AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING FOR PART OR ALL OF THE AREA MAY BE NEEDED. THERE ALSO
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER CONVECTION BY
THAT TIME COULD KEEP CONDITIONS FROM REACHING THAT THRESHOLD.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO GET SUPPRESSED ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE AREA WILL FIRMLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. DURING THE WARM SEASON, THIS IS A PRIME
LOCATION FOR STORM COMPLEXES AS DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THAT FLOW
TAPPING INTO A HIGH THETA E AIRMASS. SO THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
INCREASE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BUT IT WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES
SLIGHTLY LOWER. STORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER, WIND BEING THE GREATER THREAT, ALTHOUGH VARIOUS AI
CONVECTIVE FORECASTS AS WELL AS THE CIPS ARE TARGETING DIFFERENT DAYS
FOR WHEN THE POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG
WILL OCCUR AFTER 06Z AT KLUK, KILN, AND POSSIBLY KLCK. THE FOG WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM THE
SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>044-
051>053-060>062-070>072-077>081.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ045-046-
054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...AR
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