270
FXUS61 KILN 141819
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
219 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
2) WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCER OF OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 90S. THIS, COMBINED WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 REACHING AROUND 100F. HAVE ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY TO COVER THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
ANTICIPATED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR,
WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS, THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR VIA VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE THAT SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE RIDGE, SO WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL HAZE.
BY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT TO
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS, KEEPING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA UNDER MORE STAGNANT CONDITIONS AND INTRODUCING SOME SUBTLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR NORTH. AS SUCH, THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
APPARENT TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD, INTRODUCING HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. MAY END UP
NEEDING A NEW HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA THURSDAY, BUT WILL HOLD AT
THIS TIME.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND REORIENT NW TO SE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE WEEKEND, INTRODUCING ADDITIONAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO LINGER,
WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, INTRODUCING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
STILL PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS REINTRODUCES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, OVERALL FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE IS
WEAK, HOWEVER, DAYTIME MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2,000 J/KG,
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ABOVE 7 C/KM, AND PWATS AROUND 2+
INCHES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. FEW CU ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS
AND RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE ADDED VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO KILN AND KLUK FOR
PERIODS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN OF ISOLATED CUMULUS. WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE LIGHT, AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS,
WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>062.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ070-071-077-078.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046-055-056-
065.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-
056-065.
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ074.
DISCUSSION...AIENA
AVIATION...AIENA
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