806
FXUS61 KILN 160954
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
554 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT, HUMID, AND HAZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SITUATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. THE WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER, THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL DOES SUGGEST THE BETTER AREAS OF SMOKE
MAY SAG A BIT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO PARTS OF OUR SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
HI-RES MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY POPPING UP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
PERHAPS TRYING TO PICK UP ON A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE BETTER SMOKE FIELDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
IN THIS BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED POPS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. THE SMOKE HELPED LIMIT
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY SO HAVE MADE SOME SIMILAR DOWNWARD
TRENDS TO TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. BETWEEN THIS AND SOME DEWPOINT MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON, EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO GENERALLY MAX OUT IN THE 95-100
DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES
FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY. WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PULL SOME BETTER
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
PWS PUSHING UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. INSTABILITIES WILL ALSO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DECENT
INSTABILITY GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS OUR AREA. MLCAPES WILL RANGE
FROM LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN
OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.
A BROADER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT DOWN THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT,
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME
SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS, SO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING, A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREAT.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH THOUGH TO
LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ042-043-051-053-
060>062-070-071-077-078.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-044-
045-052-054-063-064-072>074-079>082-088.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ046-055-056-065.
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ074.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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