101
FXUS61 KILN 171025
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
625 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ADDED FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SMOKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AREAS OF SMOKE ARE PUSHING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES NOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. IN DEVELOPING LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW, THE
HRRR CONTINUES TO ADVECT THE SMOKE DOWN TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A WEAK APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL HELP TO
PUSH THE SMOKE BACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SMOKE WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AND HAVE
GENERALLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA, WHERE THE SMOKE SHOULD BE THE THICKEST
AND LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE, WE WILL
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST/WEST, WHERE MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000
J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD THEN PIVOT EAST INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT MAY
WEAKEN/BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE IF THE SMOKE HANGS
AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST.
PWS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES TODAY AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
FLOW, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS TO
THE WEST OF I-75. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER DCAPES, IT WILL ALSO
BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING
WIND THE MAIN THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS
WILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG. IN THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA IN
THE 20Z-02Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AXIS OF BETTER DEEP/LOW LEVEL SHEAR SO
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DAMAGING WIND THE
MAIN THREAT.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AREAS OF SMOKE HAVE SPREAD DOWN TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THIS IS LEADING TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CIGS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS,
LIGHT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND THIS WILL HELP
DISSIPATE THE SMOKE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
074.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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