890
FXUS61 KILN 171712
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
112 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) SMOKY CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3) ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WINDS CONTINUE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY,
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE
REACHING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL KEEP DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH CAPE, LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS IS ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS FROM MICROBURSTS. VERY ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
AREAS OF SMOKE COULD HELP LIMIT DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, HOWEVER, AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST SMOKE COVERAGE SLOWLY DISSIPATES.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW (BY JULY STANDARDS) IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
PUSHES A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH ARRIVES IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MODERATE TO HIGH MLCAPE SHOULD OVERLAP WITH LOW
TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A
LOWER END TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST AS WELL. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BE PROGRESSIVE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THEREBY LIMITING
THE FLOOD RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ROBUST SHEAR MAY END UP OVERLAPPING WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR SEVERE STORMS. FRONTAL TIMING AND ANTECEDENT CONVECTION
MAY END UP HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR SURFACE VISIBILITY SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SMOKE GETS ADVECTED TO THE NORTHEAST BY DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORM THREAT ENDS LATE
THIS EVENING.
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE STEADY
OUT THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
074.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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