483
FXUS61 KILN 172250
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
650 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) SMOKY CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3) ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY WEAKENS. LIGHT STEERING FLOW, STRONG
INSTABILITY, AND HIGH PWATS COULD SUPPORT A FEW MORE POCKETS
FLOODING BEFORE STORMS END. SOME VERY ISOLATED AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 3-
4+ INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING TO CONCERNS OVER
REMNANT HIGH WATER IN THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT (SEE AREAS COVERED
BY FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES). PARTICULARY HARD HIT AREAS
INCLUDE NORWOOD, GOLF MANOR, FAIRFAX, AND MARIEMONT IN HAMILTON
COUNTY, OHIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW (BY JULY STANDARDS) IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
PUSHES A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH ARRIVES IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MODERATE TO HIGH MLCAPE SHOULD OVERLAP WITH LOW
TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A
LOWER END TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST AS WELL. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BE PROGRESSIVE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THEREBY LIMITING
THE FLOOD RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ROBUST SHEAR MAY END UP OVERLAPPING WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR SEVERE STORMS. FRONTAL TIMING AND ANTECEDENT CONVECTION
MAY END UP HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED THIS EVENING IN
THE WARN, HUMID, UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER, SOME POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY DROPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES THROUGH
AFTER 2100Z.
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE STEADY
OUT THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
074.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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