803
FXUS61 KILN 181043
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND THE MAIN THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2) ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND USHER
IN A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, HELPING TO PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
OUR AREA. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES OF 95 TO AROUND 100
DEGREES AND ALLOW FOR ML CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP/PUSH INTO NORTHERN
AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25-30
KNOT RANGE AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT SO SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A LOW END TORNADO THREAT ACROSS OUR
NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENT, BUT EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO TRANSITION TO
DAMAGING WIND AS THE LINE OF STORMS PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA.
PWS WILL AGAIN BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY ON THE HIGH END SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE STORMS SHOULD HELP LIMIT A HIGHER END FLOOD THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA, LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT DECENT ML CAPES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT, A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME PATCHY MVFR TO IFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE, A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID TO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE WILL THEN DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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