140
FXUS61 KILN 190550
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY INTO
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND USHER IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE/MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND WILL PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP
ADVECT SOME OF THE WILDFIRE SMOKE DOWN INTO OUR AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE NEAR
SURFACE SMOKE FIELD OFF OF THE 00Z HRRR DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT WE HAD A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO NOR DUE THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM VISIBILITIES. AS A RESULT, UNSURE EXACTLY HOW TO PLAY THE
SMOKE IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW, WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF SMOKE IN
THE GRIDS AT TIMES TODAY INTO TONIGHT, TRYING TO KEY OFF OF SOME OF
THE HIGHER SMOKE DENSITY VALUES FROM THE HRRR.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS WE DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEASONABLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY. A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PCPN HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS TRYING
TO HINT AT SOME MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS/FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY JUST SCT-BKN VFR CU LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ALSO ADVECT
DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY IN NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THICK THE SMOKE WILL ACTUALLY BE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ042-043-
051-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ050-058-
059-066.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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