415
FXUS61 KILN 191025
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
625 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY INTO
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND USHER IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE/MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND WILL PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP
ADVECT SOME OF THE WILDFIRE SMOKE DOWN INTO OUR AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE NEAR
SURFACE SMOKE FIELD OFF OF THE 00Z HRRR DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT WE HAD A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO NOR DUE THE CURRENT
UPSTREAM VISIBILITIES. AS A RESULT, UNSURE EXACTLY HOW TO PLAY THE
SMOKE IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW, WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF SMOKE IN
THE GRIDS AT TIMES TODAY INTO TONIGHT, TRYING TO KEY OFF OF SOME OF
THE HIGHER SMOKE DENSITY VALUES FROM THE HRRR.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS WE DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEASONABLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY. A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOME MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING INTO A VFR SCT-BKN CU
FIELD. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF SMOKE
WILL ALSO ADVECT DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY IN NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THICK THE SMOKE WILL
ACTUALLY BE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ042-043-
051-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ050-058-
059-066.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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