955
FXUS61 KILN 200007
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
807 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) PATCHY WILDFIRE SMOKE IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AND ALSO BRING
IN SOMEWHAT CONDITIONS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN EARLY LIGHT FOG AND
LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE CLOUD DECK IS STARTING TO
SCATTER/LIFT, STILL INCLUDING NEAR SURFACE SMOKE USING THE 12Z HRRR
FOR SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY, IN WHICH CONCENTRATIONS
APPEAR TO AFFECT ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO/INDIANA, WITH MORE PATCHY
CONCENTRATIONS FURTHER SOUTH. VISIBILITIES DON'T APPEAR TO BE AS BAD
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS ROUND OF SMOKE GETTING INTO THE AREA. VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO LIMIT VISIBILITY IN MORE FOG-PRONE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER ASIDE FROM
PATCHY/AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY
NIGHT, THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH HOW THE SITUATION RESOLVES.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS DIVING SE ON MONDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH
UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION/TIMING. THE OVERALL BLENDED FORECAST BRINGS
IT INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY 12-14Z TUESDAY,
BUT THE AVAILABLE CAMS SHOW THE SOLUTION FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THIS
LOCATION COULD ULTIMATELY AFFECT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY LATER IN THE
DAY WHEN THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION BEGINS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP
TO 60KTS OF BULK SHEAR PUSHING INTO THE REGION. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, A COOLER/DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IN A NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING
LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS. AREAS OF HAZE AND SMOKE AT ALL
TAF LOCATIONS RESULTING IN MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
WITH THIS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH MVFR
VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT AT KILN, AND IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK. FOR
MONDAY, LINGERING HZ AND SMOKE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES EARLY BUT
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE THE FOG/HAZE
IMPROVES WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ042-043-
051-053-060>062.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-
065.
KY...NONE.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ050-058-
059-066.
DISCUSSION...JDR
AVIATION...AR
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