306
FXUS61 KILN 041749
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHALLOW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS IT DOES, SEVERAL
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
WHILE FORCING IS LIMITED, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIGHT
FLOW, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW, BUT LIGHT FLOW/SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOMEWHAT STRONGER
IMPULSES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT BETTER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS/DEEPER LAYER SHEAR. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME IFR TO VLIFR VSBYS
AT KLUK THROUGH DAYBREAK AND SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT
KILN/KLCK.
SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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