274
FXUS61 KILN 050615
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
215 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEY
SHOULD DIE DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, BUT A FEW MODELS
BRING THIS ACTIVITY BACK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WEAK
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE MIDWEST BUT SLOWLY EKES IT'S WAY TOWARD
THE CWA, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
THIS LASTS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA,
TURNING OFF ANY RAINFALL SAT NIGHT. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY AS THE COLD AIR ON WEST-NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT INTERACTS WITH
THE EARLY SUNSHINE, BUT THIS MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF S/W ENERGY
WORKING THROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
LIKEWISE, MONDAY IS IN QUESTION AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE GOING
DRY, BUT THE ENSEMBLE NBM KEEPS A CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN
BRINGS LIKELY POPS TO THE NRN CWA IN THE LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
UNCERTAINTY CARRIES INTO WEDNESDAY TO ROUND OUT WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PERIOD PUNCTUATED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S, WITH SOME LOWER
80S NOTED ON FRI/SAT UNDERNEATH THE MEAN TROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S, WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD LEAD TO SOME STICKY AND HUMID DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WITH A BKN 4-5KFT DECK DEVELOPING IN THE CWA ATTM, DO NOT BELIEVE
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. IF THIS HAPPENS TO BREAK UP ANY, WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
OUT FOR THAT POTENTIAL AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS TOMORROW LOOK TO BE FAVORED NEAR BUT MORE SOUTHEAST OF THE
I-71 CORRIDOR, TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME HEATING. DID NOT SEE ENOUGH OF AN
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS TO GO HIGHER THAN A 30% PROBABILITY FROM LUK
TO ILN TO CMH/LCK. THIS SHOULD COME TOGETHER WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS AND FORECAST UPDATES BETWEEN NOW AND THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST WIND UNDER 8KT TODAY WILL EVOLVE FROM A LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS
MORNING, THEN TURN MORE SE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE SE WIND OVERNIGHT
WILL BE 1-3KT AND A VARIABLE DIRECTION WAS PREFERRED.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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