478
FXUS61 KILN 051751
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR FAR
EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN A REGION OF BETTER INSTABILITY. FLOW IS FAIRLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SO STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY SLOW
MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED
FLOODING. THE STORMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT THEM TO
DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING.
A SHALLOW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. SEVERAL,
MAINLY WEAKER IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IN THEIR TIMING,
PLACEMENT AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THESE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD -- BUT IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SPECIFICS.
IN THE NEARER TERM, THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
APPEAR TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
PICKUP SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING TO SOME MARGINAL
DEEPER LAYER SHEAR. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON - SO KCMH/KLCK/KILN WILL
REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THESE. WILL COVER THIS THREAT WITH A PROB30
SHRA FOR THOSE TAF SITES. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE A MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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