421
FXUS61 KILN 052354
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
754 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR FAR
EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN A REGION OF BETTER INSTABILITY. FLOW IS FAIRLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SO STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY SLOW
MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED
FLOODING. THE STORMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT THEM TO
DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING.
A SHALLOW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. SEVERAL,
MAINLY WEAKER IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IN THEIR TIMING,
PLACEMENT AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THESE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD -- BUT IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SPECIFICS.
IN THE NEARER TERM, THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
APPEAR TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
PICKUP SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING TO SOME MARGINAL
DEEPER LAYER SHEAR. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AROUND KCMH AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS WILL BE ISOLATED AND THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS.
AROUND MID DAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THIS AT KDAY AND THEN LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMH AND KLCK AND
THEREFORE HAVE A PROB30 MENTION IN AT THOSE LOCATIONS.
BETTER FORCING COMES IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO THE LATER
HOURS OF THE KCVG TAF. DUE TO THIS HAVE A PROB30 IN FOR THE LAST HOUR
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KLUK AND THEN FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT KCVG. AT THE
VERY END OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME FOG CHANCES.
HAVE REDUCED VSBYS IN OVERNIGHT AT KLUK, KILN, AND KLCK, HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY CLOUD DEPENDENT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...08
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