361
FXUS61 KILN 060634
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
234 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WHILE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THERE WILL BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE BROADER SETUP WHICH
COULD LEAD TO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS.
FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY, DEEP FLOW IS PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
RICH MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK INTO THE ENTIRE OHIO VALLEY. SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
INCREASES. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING, A REMNANT MCV MAY EVENTUALLY DRIFT INTO
THE AREA. BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, THIS COULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MOISTURE-RICH PROFILES.
THEREFORE, THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MID AND UPPER TROUGH IS STILL IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY, SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. INSTABILITY VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO BE HIGHER
ON FRIDAY, AND THAT WILL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.
THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, AND A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
BEFORE STALLING ON SUNDAY. LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE
ONGOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS AN
EXPECTED LULL DUE TO THE TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD.
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DEEPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORT GROWING INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION. OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BROAD
WIND FLOW AND MOISTURE REGIME, HOWEVER, DETAILS ARE ALWAYS QUITE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE. THE IMPORTANT ITEM TO NOTE IS THAT WHEN
COMPARED TO THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY, THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD POSE A GREATER CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SOME BR/FG RELATED IMPACTS THIS MORNING FOR A FEW LOCAL SITES THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THIS TO ONLY BE FOR KLUK, KILN, AND
KLCK, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR UPDATES.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
STARTED AFTER 16Z TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TIMING WILL BE
SHARPENED UP IN LATER FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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