103
FXUS61 KILN 061721
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THE
AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA REMAINS IN A BIT OF AN INSTABILITY MIN THOUGH,
SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WELL THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA. MEANWHILE, A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SOME OF THE HI-RES
CAMS ARE TRYING TO SHOW SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS. WILL THEREFORE SHOW TWO PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS (BUT STILL LIMIT
THEM TO CHANCE OR LESS) LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY.
A BROAD, SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY WEAK, EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT TIMES. WHILE IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS,
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED IN THE NEARER
TERM DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEPER SHEAR.
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER IN
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO MID NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD
TO OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE APPEAR TO BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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