430
FXUS61 KILN 070531
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
131 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. WHILE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE TALLEST STORMS, WEAK WIND SHEAR AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WILL MORE LIKELY FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
ANY DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FORM FROM COLLAPSING
UPDRAFTS, LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO FEED INSTABILITY
NORTHWARD, ENHANCING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. BOTH THE SPC
HREF AND REFS GIVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO, SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE THREAT IS
NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH, BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVE
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST RESULTS
IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING SATURDAY MID-MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THE BIG PICTURE JET STREAM PATTERN BEGINS TO EVOLVE ON SUNDAY, WITH A
STALLED BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TROUGH
SHIFTING TO THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS PEAK HEATING IS ACHIEVED.
BETTER MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY IN CANADA PROVIDES A
FAIRLY STEADY PERIOD OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FEED MOISTURE NORTHWARD SUPPORTING HIGHER
VALUES OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CORN BELT. AS MENTIONED IN SPC'S 4-7
DAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK, THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR EITHER
DAY, THE FINER DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE TO WAIT.
BY MID TO LATE WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT DRIER AIR FROM
THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY,
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE 00Z TAFS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA. EVENTUALLY, ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE ULTIMATE COVERAGE. TEMPO GROUPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE TIME PERIODS. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
UPDATES TO LOCAL TAF SITE TIMING.
WHILE PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN BETWEEN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT, IN GENERAL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page