026
FXUS61 KILN 080005
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA HAS DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML
CAPES UP INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS, COMBINED WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS NUDGED UP INTO THE 20-30 KNOT
RANGE AND DCAPES ARE PUSHING UP CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG, SO SUPPOSE A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. WITH
CONTINUED EMBEDDED ROUNDS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY/WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, THERE WILL BE
AN UPTICK IN DEEPER LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AS A
RESULT, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A BETTER SEVERE THREAT EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK. WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE, PWS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASED FLOODING THREAT THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS.
SOMEWHAT BETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRIER AND COOLER TREND TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THIS IN INDIANA.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VSBYS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT SOME OF THE AREA TAF SITES. A GENERAL LULL OR
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING
DAYTIME HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS
AND THEREFORE LIMITED MENTION TO PROB30.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...08
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