775
FXUS61 KILN 082343
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA HAS DESTABILIZED NICELY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MLCAPES CURRENTLY IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS
THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AND THIS MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER
DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WHILE COVERAGE
SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT WE SAW ON FRIDAY, IT WILL STILL
BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HOW WELL A POTENTIAL MCS OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA.
FOR NOW, WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE OR LESS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. BEYOND THAT, TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC,
BUT OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DEEPER LAYER SHEAR WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH MID WEEK, SO THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED
FLOODING A CONTINUED THREAT. MORE WIDESPREAD FLOOD CONCERNS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP IF WE START TO GET REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ABOUT THE REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEN AFTER 06Z, THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY AT KLUK AND KILN
WHERE A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE. AND RESTRICTIONS WILL
END BY 13Z WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...35
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