955
FXUS61 KILN 090634
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
234 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. WHILE SPECIFIC IMPACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR, MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS ADVANCED THROUGH A PORTION OF
THE LOCAL AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL OHIO DIPPING INTO THE 60S THIS MORNING. TO THE SOUTH, A WARM
MUGGY AIR MASS REMAINS. THIS AIR MASS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE STALLED BOUNDARY NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE LAST
FEW DAYS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE EVENING. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX, VARIOUS CAMS INDICATE THAT IT WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BRING A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN A LEVEL 1 OF 5
MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM THE SPC. DECREASING WIND
SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING AS THE LEADING OUTFLOW PUSHES AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE PROGRESS OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE MORNING, A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS RECOVERS FROM A
REMNANT COLD POOL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUITE EFFICIENTLY,
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENT SURFACE MOISTURE
SUPPORTING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG. WIND SHEAR IS A BIT
STRONGER MONDAY EVENING, WITH WESTERLY 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS AROUND 30
KNOTS. AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
DEVELOPMENT WILL GREATLY CHANGE THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THESE DETAILS MAY NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE AIR MASS RECOVERY BEGINS TO RESULT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW, NEARLY THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A LEVEL 2 OF 5
SLIGHT RISK FROM THE SPC. WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW MONDAY
NIGHT, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS.
TUESDAY: BY NOW, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE BEEN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, COMPLICATING THE FORECAST GOING INTO
TUESDAY. TYPICALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TEND TO
DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE POTENTIAL RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, ON TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE, EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. IN
THE LOW LEVELS, PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
THESE IS PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS COULD STILL BE A
THREAT ACROSS THE AREA, BUT DEPENDING ON THE ALIGNMENT OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS, FLASH FLOODING MAY
BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THERE IS A GROWING CONSENSUS ACROSS THE
LONG RANGE MODELS THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD FOCUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREATS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO, SOUTHEAST INDIANA, AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO PUSH NORTHWARD AGAIN ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH LOWER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FORECAST PERIOD IS DRY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VISIBILITY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, CIGS ARE NEAR MVFR THRESHOLDS SO TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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