642
FXUS61 KILN 092359
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. WHILE
SPECIFIC IMPACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK.
SOUTHERN EDGE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL GRAZE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SOME STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FAIRLY
QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. SEVERAL OF THE
HI- RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN DROP EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH
THIS BEING DURING A LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY, WOULD GENERALLY
EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO MAKE IT INTO OUR
AREA, BUT SUPPOSE IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A LOW END
SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA.
REMNANTS FROM THE POTENTIAL MORNING ACTIVITY COULD INITIALLY AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT, BUT WE WILL STILL BE QUITE HUMID WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE. THIS WOULD
STILL ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY SO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW,
SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT, ALTHOUGH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD ALSO LEAD
TO A LOWER END TORNADO THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
IN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, CLOSER TO THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY.
WITH HIGH SUMMERTIME PWS IN PLACE AND REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS
POSSIBLY TRACKING OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
INCREASE AS WE PROGRESS INTO MID WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH UNCERTAINTY WHERE AND WHEN COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO. IT APPEARS THAT ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO TO START THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OR PERHAPS A
BIT SOUTH OF EAST BUT STAY NORTH OF KCMH. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. KDAY HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED. EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND WHICH MAKES
IT QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED, ALTHOUGH
THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE. THEN THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF STORMS AT ALL SITES AFTER 18Z. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT AT KLUK WHERE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHALLOW
FOG ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT AFTER 15Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...35
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