394
FXUS61 KILN 100640
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
240 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK. WHILE
SPECIFIC IMPACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MONDAY MORNING: THE REMNANT COLD POOL AIR MASS FROM THE SUNDAY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MODIFY INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN RISING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO WITHIN THE LAST
FEW HOURS. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET, THIS RECOVERY WOULD PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE AND PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA
LATER THIS MORNING.
REST OF THE DAY MONDAY: WHILE ANY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE
MORNING WOULD COMPLICATE FACTORS GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THE BROADER PICTURE STILL SUPPORTS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN PLENTIFUL
CAPE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM EAST TO WEST FROM IOWA TO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. NEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY, MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM PERIOD LATER TODAY, GIVEN THE
LARGE AREA HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, SMALLER CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA. LIMITED SOME OF THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURE VALUES IN THE NBM GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS STRONG INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF LINGERING INSTABILITY, THERE IS PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY: ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING WILL COMPLICATE THE
OVERALL FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, HOWEVER, A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL SUPPORTS AN ACTIVE DAY
REGARDLESS ANY EARLY ACTIVITY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER TUESDAY
WHEN COMPARED TO MONDAY, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS. IF CONDITIONS ALIGN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AN ORGANIZED MCS IS LIKELY THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. SWATHS OF SEVERE WIND AND SPIN-UP TORNADOES WOULD
BE LIKELY AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION OF THE LINE IS WHAT REMAINS THE MOST
UNCERTAIN.
WHILE AN ORGANIZED MCS WOULD LIKELY USE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA, MUCH OF THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SET UP REMAINS THE SAME.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITHIN A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
SUPPLY MORE MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD. ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY NOW, FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD
LIKELY REQUIRE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME
AREAS VERSUS A PROGRESSIVE LINE THAT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY: THE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING BEGIN TO DECREASE FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THAT THIS EVENT IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS
AWAY, UNCERTAINTY IS LARGER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE IMPACTS.
THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT MUCH OF THE DAMAGING WIND AND
FLASH FLOODING THREATS WOULD BE OUTSIDE THE LOCAL AREA OR AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
REST OF PERIOD: THURSDAY, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN A BIT
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, PRESENTING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ON TOP OF THE RAINFALL FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS,
FLOODING OF AREA RIVERS COULD NOW BECOME AN INCREASING PROBLEM. A
STRONG ENOUGH TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTHEAST US TO ALLOW FOR
A MUCH NEEDED DRY PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE BACK TO THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT THE
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS WITH THE EVENTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. NOW THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD, ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND
ILLINOIS. IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS, SOME
MAY EVENTUALLY ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL TAF SITES. NOW HAVE PROB30S IN FOR
ALL SITES, BUT THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
WOULD BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNTIL TIMING AND
COVERAGE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN, WILL MAINTAIN PROB30S LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH 00Z.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LESS THAN PROB30 THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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