935
FXUS61 KILN 101754
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
154 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK. WHILE
SPECIFIC IMPACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF OUR AREA. IT HAS PUSHED OUT A
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OHIO. THIS IS MOVING INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE
MLCAPES ARE IN THE 3000-3500 J/KG RANGE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
BOUNDARY FOR SOME ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK BUT TIMING AND LOCATION
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SO SOME ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT MAY BE
POSSIBLE THEN. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT A STRONGER
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEASONABLY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 40 TO
60 KNOT RANGE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS TUESDAY,
BUT SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING WIND STILL
THE MAIN THREAT.
WITH HIGH PWS IN PLACE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STORMS. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THEE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS, WANTED TO GET AN FFA OUT AS REPEATED ROUNDS OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED FLASH FLOOD RISK. THIS MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE O
SHIFTS, DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IS MOVING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS, SO WE COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE AT THE SOUTHWEST
TAF SITES WHERE WE WILL COVER THE THREAT WITH A PROB30.
SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS THOUGH SO WILL JUST INCLUDE A
PROB30 AT THE TAF SITE IN THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME.
AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY, A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ091>093-096>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-074.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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