946
FXUS61 KILN 112343
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
743 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLASH FLOOD RISK HAS INCREASED IN SOME AREAS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
2) ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
3) ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEGUN AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS, AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70
LOOK TO SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS LATEST
ROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
DAMAGING/DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS, WHERE LOCALIZED GUSTS COULD REACH
70 TO 80 MPH LEADING TO MORE SIGNIFICANT LOCAL DAMAGE COMPARED TO 60
MPH WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
STORM MOTION WILL TEND TO BE TO THE SOUTHEAST, LIMITING TRAINING, HOWEVER
DUE TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY IN ANY MORE VULNERABLE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED A LOT
OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS, SUCH AS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL OHIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
INITIAL CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER ANY REPRIEVE MAY BE BRIEF AS PLENTY OF HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA
OR DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR
APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST OHIO/NORTHERN KENTUCKY
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF NEW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS
RATHER LOW AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE PLACED FURTHER NORTH.
WHEREVER THE NEW CONVECTION ORIENTS ITSELF WILL HAVE A LOW END SEVERE
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD RISK MAY
EMERGE ESPECIALLY IF ACTIVITY ALIGNS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
REPETITIVELY MOVES ACROSS THE SAME AREA. AT THIS TIME, A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
IT'S UNCLEAR WHETHER THE BALANCE OF WEDNESDAY MAY SEE A
ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTION, OR IF ANOTHER ROUND MAY IMPACT AT LEAST
PART OF THE AREA. IF ANOTHER ROUND DOES OCCUR, IT COULD BE LATE IN
THE DAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH CONTINUED RISKS FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND. LATER UPDATES
WILL HAVE TO REFINE AND RESOLVE TIMING/PLACEMENT DETAILS OF ANY LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
THE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT
DETAILS ON INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES AND TIMING OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN. EITHER WAY, WE CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRYING TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND, AND WHILE WE CAN'T
COMPLELTY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM, THE TREND SHOULD BE DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY HAVE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT THE COLUMBUS SITES AND KILN. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY INCREASING
TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT COLUMBUS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY REMAIN ISOLATED
SO THEY HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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