924
FXUS61 KILN 122335
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
735 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED QPF ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA/FAR WESTERN OHIO THRU EARLY
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED TODAY. LOWERED TODAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS ELEVATED INTO EARLY EVENING,
PRIMARILY FOR EASTERN INDIANA, WESTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
2) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST, BUT PERIODIC BREAKS OF DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPED NEAR THE INDIANA/OHIO
STATE LINE - AT THE NOSE OF A 30 KT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET, WHERE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION EXISTS. THE AIRMASS FEEDING THESE STORMS
IS VERY MOIST WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES. THE OVERALL SYSTEM
MOVEMENT HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY WITH WIDESPREAD DAILY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN INDIANA.
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS FAYETTE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED
6 TO 8+ INCHES.
THESE ELEVATED STORMS ARE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND THE EASTERN
EXTENT IS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE BUT BACKBUILDING
CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE INITIAL COMPLEX. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. HAVE CONTINUED THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING. OUTFLOW FROM THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY
HAS DECREASED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH OF ILN/S FA. SOME FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN WITH LOW LEVELS BEING VERY
SATURATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OFFER
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO INCREASE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY. BASED CAPE AND SHEAR OVERLAP THERE MAY BE A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER
IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS SIGNALING FOR
STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO PLENTIFUL GROUND MOISTURE
AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HAVE KEPT WITH EARLIER TAF
CYCLES BUT LOWERED A BIT MORE INTO IFR RANGE FOR CLOUD BASES. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE
STRATUS VS. FOG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRATUS FOCUS FOR NOW.
NEXT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES WITH
ANOTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING. TIMING AND
EXACT LOCATION COULD CHANGE WITH FUTURE UPDATES... BUT HAVE ADDED A
PROB30 TO THE EXTENDED CVG TAF FOR MESSAGING THIS THREAT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...04
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