562
FXUS61 KILN 130710
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
310 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
2) WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LESSER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY
BRUSH BY SOME OF THE KENTUCKY COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT ANY
HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL MOST LIKELY NOT AFFECT THOSE AREAS. AFTER THAT,
IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PART OF THE DAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WEST CENTRAL INDIANA INTO NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY WHICH WILL DEFINE AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT. STORMS MAY
DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH ANY WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO OCCUR BUT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCE IN THE FORM OF AN MCV THAT ORIGINATED
IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THAT,
THE NOSE OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL OVERRUN THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND ELEVATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING POSSIBLE. VARIOUS RUNS OF
GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING RATHER CONCERNING NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
STREAKS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE AREA, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AREAS
ALREADY HARD HIT BY FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY, THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A SIGNAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS THE REST OF FRIDAY, AT LEAST AS IT APPEARS NOW.
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED LAST EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RENEWED
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD A BIT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PUSH THE ACTIVE PATTERN NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM SUBSTANTIALLY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT INDICES REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED UNTIL A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL
DRIVE FLIGHT CATEGORY. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BREAK TOWARDS 15Z
AND THEN LIKELY GET TO VFR BEFORE 18Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHEN AND WHERE STORMS WILL OCCUR.
OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
080.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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