861
FXUS61 KILN 140009
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
809 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE QUICKER AND QPF HIGHER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
2) WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LESSER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
MCS MOVING THRU EAST-SOUTHEAST THRU NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY DIVE MORE SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS EVENING. CAM
SOLUTIONS SHOW A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER HAVING POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD,
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. CAM SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING
WITH THE 00Z HRRR HAVING THE PLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT STORMS.
FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION - THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION AND TIME FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA, SOUTHWEST OHIO, AND
NORTHERN KY - THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WHERE FAVORABLE 8H MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP. STORMS ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TO TRACK INTO ILN/S FA THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
THRU THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAIN
WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRIPES OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AND LOCALLY 5 PLUS IN REPEATED STORMS
OVERNIGHT. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT AREAS ALREADY
HARD HIT BY FLOODING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY, THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS THE REST OF FRIDAY. THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD A BIT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PUSH THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF STORMS NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM SUBSTANTIALLY. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS FOR THIS EVENING HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH,
LEAVING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT, GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOWERED CLOUD BASES AND
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS EXACTLY WHERE THE
OVERNIGHT BAND WILL SET UP, WITH MOST GUIDANCE FOCUSING ON THE REGION
FROM DAY SOUTH TO THE CINCINNATI AREA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
080.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...04
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