785
FXUS61 KILN 140607
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
207 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASE POPS AND QPF WITH THE NEXT ROUND SHOWERS AND HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
2) WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO OUR COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO AND INDIANA
STATE LINE NEAR THE RICHMOND AND GREENVILLE AREA. THIS IS THE NEXT
WAVE OR DISTURBANCE THAT IS RIDING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER OUR AREA. THE LATEST 00Z CAM HIGH-RES FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATE THIS COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A
SLOW MOVING MCS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
MORNING. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT SEVERE RISK THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
MAIN THREAT. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING OF CONVECTION WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
THERE WILL BE A DECENT LULL IN THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER LATER TODAY. BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST GOING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IS THROUGH 15Z THIS
MORNING. WE WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE NEW 12Z FORECAST GUIDANCE
AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD WATCH IF TRENDS SHOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SMALL MID LEVEL RIDGE OF WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACTIVE STORM TRACK OF CONVECTION NORTHWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS WEEKEND. HEAT
INDICES MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BETWEEN 100 AND 104 DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM KDAY SOUTH
TOWARDS CINCINNATI, ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS FAR NORTH AS
KCMH/KLCK THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL, BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS
AND PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE (EVEN OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS) LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...15
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