629
FXUS61 KILN 142346
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
746 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR OUR
NORTHERN AREAS.
MADE CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY AND ADDED
SEVERE WORDING INTO THE HWO FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT
OF FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. IN ADDITION, DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
2) WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
DURING THIS TIME. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO, ALTHOUGH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THERE IS A
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCH PRIMARILY
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70. WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY
ON AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. GOING INTO SUNDAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN, DAMAGING WINDS, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ADDED SEVERE WORDING INTO THE HWO
FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THIS WEEKEND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW WARM IT WILL BE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS. STILL GETTING SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA REACHING AROUND 100 HEAT INDEX
FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION HEAT POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS COME IN RATHER DRY FOR TONIGHT.
THIS, ALONG WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS, NECESSITATED REMOVAL OF
THUNDERSTORM GROUPS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO
HONE IN ON TIMING AND THE NEED FOR LOWER VISIBILITY GROUPS DURING THE
STORMS.
OUTLOOK..THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074.
KY...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ050-058-059-066.
DISCUSSION...JGL/08
AVIATION...04
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