452
FXUS61 KILN 150730
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
330 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. IN ADDITION, SOME STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE.
2) WARMER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AND IT WILL BECOME LESS HUMID.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
ANOTHER COMPLEX CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN MCS HAS BEEN DEVELOPING IN ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. IT IS NOT CLEAR
HOW THIS EVOLVES AS IT MOVES EAST. THERE MAY BE WEAKENING INTO THE
MORNING, BUT THEN THE MCV ASSOCIATED WITH IT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING MAY LEAD TO A LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, THAT WOULD BRING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
HOWEVER, A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
INTENSIFICATION AS THIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS THIS MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. A MODEST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE NOSING INTO
THE AREA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. SO
EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED. THIS COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS GET REPEATED ROUNDS OF
STORMS. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
BACK WINDS. SO THERE IS A NON-ZERO TORNADIC THREAT.
MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE, SO STORMS COULD BECOME
QUITE ROBUST LEADING TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A FAIRLY DECENT NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD END UP BEING ENHANCED DEPENDING
ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
HAVE THE LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH 90.
COMBINED WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS, THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE NEAR 100 IN
THAT PART OF THE AREA. AIR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES MAY BE JUST
A BIT HIGHER AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DRIER AIR MAY LAG SLIGHTLY, BUT BY TUESDAY IT
SHOULD BE BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO A MINIMUM DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE TERMINALS COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN. SO HAVE INCLUDED TWO
SEPARATE PERIODS WITH PROB30 WHEN THE HIGHER CHANCE APPEARS TO EXIST,
AT LEAST AT TIME OF INITIAL TAF ISSUANCE. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS,
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK..THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-080>082-088.
KY...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-
058-059-066.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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