329
FXUS61 KILN 151912
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
312 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. IN ADDITION, SOME STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE.
2) WARMER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AND IT WILL BECOME LESS HUMID.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AS IMPULSES
TRACK THRU THE ACTIVE BAND OF WESTERLIES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
BUT AN MCV MOVING ACROSS INDIANA COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND THEN TRACK ACROSS THE FA THRU THIS
EVENING. OVERLAP OF FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (ML CAPE OF
2000-2500 J/KG) WILL PRESENT A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
TORNADOS THREAT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
AFTER THIS EVENINGS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT A GENERAL LULL IN COVERAGE
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO INCREASE AHEAD AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY,
WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THERE IS ALSO AN ISOLD TORNADO
THREAT DUE TO SHEAR PROFILES.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. SO EXTREMELY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS GET REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS.
HREF LPMM SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BANDS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CONTINUED.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP SUNDAY WITH
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER APPROACH 90 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS. COMBINED WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS, THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE NEAR
100 IN THAT PART OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN MCV. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THRU THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. AFTER THESE STORMS PASS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT, THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF/S SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF/S. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK..MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-080>082-088.
KY...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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