194
FXUS61 KILN 161047
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALSO BE IN CONJUNCTIONS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL STILL BE HIGH, BUT THE WARM CLOUD LAYER WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS DEEP. SO THERE MAY STILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, BUT THE FLOODING
THREAT APPEARS TO BE MORE ISOLATED. IN ADDITION, WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME MORE ROBUST STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BECOME ELONGATED IN A NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION WHICH WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO BE SLOW TO
MOVE ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL THIS FRONT CLEARS.
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS MID
WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BIGGER CHANGE IN AIR MASS WITH HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS TO
START THE PERIOD. AFTER THAT IT WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE OF AND STORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK..MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-080>082-088.
KY...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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