454
FXUS61 KILN 161833
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
233 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS AN EMBEDDED MCV IN THE
WESTERLIES TRACKS ACROSS OHIO. THIS MCV COMBINED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY WAS LEADING TO STRONG STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. WITH
HIGH PWAT VALUES THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, BUT THE
FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE ISOLATED. SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OHIO PRIOR TO PUSHING EAST OF ILN/S AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THIS FRONT
CLEARS. SOME CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW BETTER FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
PATTERN CHANGES AS BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD MID WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A CHANGE IN AIR MASS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN EMBEDDED MCV IN THE WESTERLIES TRACKING ACROSS OHIO
INTERACTING WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS LEADING TO STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO. WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHIFTING SOUTHEAST STORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.
A SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THIS FRONT CLEARS. SOME CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW BETTER FOCUS FOR STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE A
PROB30 MENTION FOR WHEN THE BEST THREAT EXISTS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
A RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK..MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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