149
FXUS61 KILN 162353
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
753 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REDUCED SEVERE THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN
FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED.
CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT BUT
IN GENERAL, HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THIS FRONT
CLEARS. SOME CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW BETTER FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
PATTERN CHANGES AS BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD MID WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A CHANGE IN AIR MASS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
CAMS AREN'T OVERLY CONFIDENT, HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR ISOLATED
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONDENSES IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY.
OUTLOOK..MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...
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