488
FXUS61 KILN 180631
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
231 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE ON FOG HAS DECREASED
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MIDWEEK AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA, OCCASIONALLY CLEARING BUT THEN REDEVELOPING. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN DROPPING IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHENEVER CLOUDS DECREASE BUT THEN POP BACK
UP WHEN CLOUDS RETURN. WITH LATE CLEARING, THERE WILL ONLY BE A
NARROW WINDOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. BEYOND THAT, IT
WILL FINALLY BE A DRY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA, A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE AND PASS
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALL COME TOGETHER TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AND SOME POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8 IN AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DOES EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 4 KM. THESE MORE FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS WILL BE RATHER TRANSIENT, SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAIN IN ANY STORMS, BUT THAT SHOULD NOT BE FOCUSED ON ANY ONE
AREA OR BE PERSISTENT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CLOUDS IN THE 4-6KT RANGE ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. THEY
SHOULD BE DECREASING TOWARDS 12Z. THIS WILL ALLOW A NARROW WINDOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY AT KLUK. ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 14Z. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF CUMULUS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING AND THEN DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY.
ANY CEILINGS WILL BE VFR.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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