531
FXUS61 KILN 011848
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
248 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED TEMPERATURES FROM NBM AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM NBM THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDED SEVERE
MENTION IN THE HWO FOR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME AREAS
SOUTH OF DAYTON TO COLUMBUS WILL REACH CRITERIA ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER
WITH THIS BEING FURTHER OUT IN TIME AND WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTIES HELD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY EXPANSION AND KEPT MENTION IN
THE HWO. TOMORROW HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED.
THURSDAY THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS THE
SOUTH THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION DUE TO GREATER
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION MOST OF THE DAY. NBM HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO PICK UP ON
PRECIPITATION SIGNATURES AND THEREFORE HAVE MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE
LIMITED IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE ARE MUCH BETTER CHANCES THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS, HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
OHIO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLOODING IF MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL HAVE LESS COVERAGE, HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TRI-
STATE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR KCMH AND KLCK NEAR THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
VFR CU ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KLUK OVERNIGHT, OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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