405
FXUS61 KILN 021045
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGHS MAY END UP
BEING JUST A SHADE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. BUT IT ALSO APPEARS THAT
DEW POINTS MAY MIX OUT AND BE A BIT LOWER. ALL IN ALL, HEAT INDICES
SHOULD END UP WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 100. THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAT INDEX TO BE IN THAT SAME RANGE AGAIN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THAT OCCURS,
THEN THE HEAT ADVISORY WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED. BUT THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO DO SO. SIGNALS OF MCS REMNANTS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY CREATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THEN.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SHORT WAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THEN DIVING EAST
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS.
WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL OHIO TO
BE AFFECTED WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCES/CONFIDENCE FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST. BULK SHEAR WILL BE PRETTY MARGINAL DURING THE DAY, BUT IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES BY. WHILE NOT AT ITS PEAK, THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. ALL
TOGETHER, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING, PARTICULARLY FOR CENTRAL OHIO.
A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AND DIG ACROSS THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL CAUSE
THE HIGH TO RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL PUT OUR REGION INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL MAKE US
PRONE TO MCSS. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS SUGGESTING THAT MCS
REMNANTS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT THERE WOULD
NOT BE MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AT THE TIMES THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CONCERN FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO
1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES AND THERE WILL BE A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY COME INTO PLAY. IT IS VERY UNCLEAR, WHETHER
ANY PART OF THE AREA WILL RECOVER ENOUGH TO HAVE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH THEORETICALLY WOULD
HAVE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
WE KNOW THAT MCSS CAN MAKE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE ENERGY BUDGET
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THEN ALTERS WHERE SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP. SO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE INCREASES QUITE A
BIT OVER TIME.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER PAST 0Z. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
SHALLOW FOG WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN AT KLUK AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE
DAY AND THEN REVERT BACK TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 0Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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