487
FXUS61 KILN 022211
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
611 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PERSISTENT HEAT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
COVERAGE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH.
DESPITE THIS, AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TO NOW
INCLUDE FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL ACT TO COMPRESS
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ON THURSDAY. WITH MID-
LAYER CAPE AROUND 2,000J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPROACHING 25 KNOTS
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO, A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TIMING VARIES
ACROSS THE CAMS, WITH NAM NEST AND HRRR LATE IN THE EVENING, AND THE
ARW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
BEHIND FRIDAY'S SHORTWAVE, MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY,
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. WITH QUITE A BIT
OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT BECOMING SLIGHTLY
COOLER, THE CHANCES FOR STORMS INCREASES A BIT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED
TIMING UNCERTAINTY MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. AT THIS TIME,
STILL THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, AND AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH.
IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH WESTERLIES TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED TODAY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING - LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK.
THE FOG WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH LATER ON THURSDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING INTO ILN/S NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE BEST THREAT
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING HAVE
KEPT THE TAF/S DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ042-051-053>055-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-043>046-
052-056.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
080.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...AR
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