649
FXUS61 KILN 030553
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
500H RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO LINGER, RESULTING
IN MASS SUBSIDENCE AND HOT CONDITIONS. FRESH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PAINT HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED A BIT BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS ACTS TO PUSH THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS
FARTHER SOUTH WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F EXPECTED AGAIN FOR AREAS
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND CLOUD COVER MAY IMPACT HEAT BOTH DAYS (SEE MORE BELOW).
BY SATURDAY, DEEP TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD,
RESULTING IN DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE MID
80S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, LOW 90S FOR AREAS SOUTH) BUT WE'LL
FINALLY FALL BELOW HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON
THURSDAY, WITH THE GREAT LAKES REGION RECEIVING THE BULK OF THE MCS
TRAIN OF ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OHIO TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE ROUNDS OF STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL THEN EXPAND
SOUTHWESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA, HOWEVER, SOME RIPPLES OF 25-35 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL CREEP
INTO CENTRAL OHIO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS, COMBINED WITH 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE,
PWATS AROUND 150% OF NORMALS, AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INTRODUCES A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES (CENTRAL OHIO) THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER, WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT
DOWN TO OUR AREA ISN'T OVERLY ROBUST. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND MCS TRACK(S) REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN OHIO DURING THURSDAY DAY TIMEFRAME, GIVEN THE
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN,
INTRODUCING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEGINS TO ENCROACH INTO OUR REGION. THIS SHIFT PUTS US MORESO INTO
MCS TERRITORY IN TEAMS OF SHEAR AND DRIVING WINDS. HOWEVER, AS WE
HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WE LOSE OUR SB INSTABILITY. DESPITE THIS, AN
AXIS OF AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND
PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 180% OF NORMALS. UNFORTUNATELY, TRYING TO
TIME OUT MCS ARRIVAL IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT AND OFTEN DEPENDS
LARGELY ON PREVIOUS MCS DEVELOPMENT/DECAY AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS BETWEEN HIRES GUIDANCE THAT SOME
TYPE OF MCS REMNANT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, HOW MUCH THIS HOLDS TOGETHER
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
SIMILAR CONCERNS REMAIN IN PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A
DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, PLACING OUR FORECAST
AREA IN DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE, THOUGH THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND WHERE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LAYS
OUT.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING HOURS.
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AND HAVE DROPPED KLUK
ACCORDINGLY. OVERLAND FOG IS NOT WIDELY ANTICIPATED FOR OTHER AREAS
GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS.
A DIURNAL CU DECK WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP TO 10 KNOTS OR SO OUT OF THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THERE A LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AROUND CENTRAL OHIO, PRIMARILY IMPACTING KLCK AND KCMH,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THIS RIGHT NOW.
SIMILARLY, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN OHIO, BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, CHOSE TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING, BECOMING VARIABLE AROUND 3 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ042-051-053>055-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-043>046-
052-056.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
080.
DISCUSSION...AIENA
AVIATION...AIENA
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