934
FXUS61 KILN 051155
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
755 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
2) A QUIETER AND COOLER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN SPLAYED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT/TIMING OF STORMS (OR WHETHER
STORMS ACTUALLY FIRE OFF) IS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
BY SUNDAY, LARGE SCALE RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR WEST, HERALDING IN
NORTHERLY FLOW AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
TRANSLATES TO QUIETER AND COOLER CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ONLY REACHING THE LOW 80S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE
LOW 60S/UPPER 50S. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
THE BULK OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO OUR AREA, BRINGING
A RETURN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S BY MID WEEK. A DISTURBANCE TO
OUR NORTH LOOKS TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MID-WEEK
AS IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THOUGH WE'RE
STILL A BIT FAR OUT FOR DETAILS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN TYPICAL WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS CROSSING THE TERMINALS AND WEAKENING THIS
MORNING.
MODELS STILL SHOW PRECIP IN THE REGION BUT NOT NECESSARILY OVER ONE
AREA OR ANOTHER, AND THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A CHANCE OF RAIN VERSUS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED PRECIP OTHER
THAN A VCSH AT DAY AND ILN. HOPING CONVECTIVE MODELS COME MORE IN
LINE WITH EACH OTHER LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON GOES INTO THE EVENING, AND AS
PER EARLIER DISCUSSION, CONFIDENCE ON BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION (AND
EVEN IF STORMS DEVELOP) REMAINS LOW, SO OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AIENA
AVIATION...FRANKS
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