273
FXUS61 KILN 051656
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STILL EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
2) A QUIETER AND COOLER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT IN GREENE/FAYETTE COUNTIES LOOKS TO BE FIRING ON
A W-E BOUNDARY THAT WAS IN NRN IL/IN ABOUT 4 HOURS AGO. MORE STORMS
ARE BEGINNING AS WELL IN NCNTL/NE IN. AS OF THIS MOMENT, THE CWA WILL
BE ADJUSTING TO THE NEUTRALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG TSTM COLD POOL. AROUND DAYBREAK, OUTFLOW SPREAD OUT FAIRLY
EQUALLY ACROSS THE CWA. FUNNELING IN AIR BEHIND IT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BE PLAYING WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF STORMS, OF
WHICH HASN'T BEEN OF ANY CONFIDENCE LEADING UP TO EVEN NOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
BY SUNDAY, LARGE SCALE RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR WEST, HERALDING IN
NORTHERLY FLOW AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
TRANSLATES TO QUIETER AND COOLER CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ONLY REACHING THE LOW 80S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE
LOW 60S/UPPER 50S. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
THE BULK OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO OUR AREA, BRINGING
A RETURN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S BY MID WEEK. A DISTURBANCE TO
OUR NORTH LOOKS TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MID-WEEK
AS IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THOUGH WE'RE
STILL A BIT FAR OUT FOR DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN TYPICAL WITH TSTM OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER TODAY LIKELY INTERFERING WITH WHAT IS ALREADY LARGE
UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
AM KEEPING TS OUT OF ANY TERMINAL FORECAST, GIVEN THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF CELLS THAT SEEMS TO BE PROFFERED THIS AFTERNOON. WILL AMEND
WHEN/IF NECESSARY AND/OR IF ANY ORGANIZATION PERMITS A SHORT-TERM
FORECAST THAT WOULD INCLUDE THE DEEPER CONVECTION IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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