746
FXUS61 KILN 071001
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
601 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A DRY AND
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, THE
HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST, BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A
WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S,
WHILE LOW 90S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED ILN IS FROM THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM, MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISN'T ROBUST. HOWEVER, AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN INTO THE REGION, IT LOOKS TO NEARLY STALL OUT
(OR BE VERY SLOW TO PROGRESS) AND PWATS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 200% OF NORMAL. WHILE, AT THIS JUNCTION, SEVERE WEATHER
DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY LIKELY, ANY TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING
BOUNDARY WOULD INTRODUCE A FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
WHILE EXACT TIMING ON FROPA IS A BIT AMBIGUOUS, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE FA ON THURSDAY. ONCE THIS FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN
FILTER IN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TAFS. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY. PATCHY DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH ONLY INCLUDED IN THE EXTENDED CVG TAF FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AIENA
AVIATION...AIENA
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