479
FXUS61 KILN 212334
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
734 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH EXPIRED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. MORE SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
COOLER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ON A
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR IN THE COOL
DAMP AIR MASS.
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATER THREAT FOR
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST COAST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD FOR THE AREA DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
A COOL, DAMP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. TIMING THIS OUT FOR EACH SITE
CARRIES VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, WHEN IT OCCURS, VISIBILITY WILL
LIKELY DROP TO IFR AND BELOW. HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH A PROB30 DUE TO
THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE SIGNAL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO DELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD BASES BY A
FEW HOURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED, SO HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE CEILINGS NEAR OR BELOW IFR THRESHOLD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...04
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