876
FXUS61 KILN 222352
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
752 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE HWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCIOTO
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. MORE DRIZZLE AND A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EKE WWD OVERNIGHT, AT THE SAME
TIME AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW. BEST DYNAMICS
FROM THE UPPER LOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE IN/OH/KY REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL OH AND MOVE WEST. CANNOT
RULE OUT A BIT OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEEP NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW.
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM CENTRAL
OHIO INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND TAIL OFF THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
FLOODING ACROSS THOSE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION PRIMARILY SOUTH
OF COLUMBUS SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO THEN GET
ABSORBED INTO A LARGER CUT OFF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE END OF
THE WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL BE ABLE TO
SPREAD BACK SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A STUBBORN CLOUD DECK,
THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE NARROWED SO THAT LOW WILL BE A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVELS WILL FINALLY DRY OUT
ON THURSDAY AND THE CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE. SO LOWS WILL GET A BIT
CHILLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO SHOWERS AS BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TAF SITES. CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT
AT LEAST IFR CIGS FOR A PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS WILL ALSO BE
REDUCED. THIS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE
VISIBILITIES WILL START OUT VFR, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM
TO DROP TO MVFR OR IFR WITH DRIZZLE. MVFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
VARY AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...08
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